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On this episode of Okay, Computer, Dan talks with Guy Adami about why tech stocks and the Nasdaq are underperforming versus the broader market (1:30), Apple’s plans to shift production out of China to countries like India and Vietnam (7:00), Tesla reportedly preparing to cut production in China (13:00), what’s driving the big executive departures from Salesforce (18:00), Meta’s intensifying regulatory and digital ad woes (23:30), JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon slamming crypto as “pet rocks,” (26:00) and Guy attending the Kennedy Center Honors where the band U2 was among the honorees (33:00).


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Show transcript: 

Dan Nathan: [00:00:36] Alright. Welcome to Okay, Computer. I’m Dan Nathan. I am joined this week by a very, very special guest. It is my co-founder of RiskReversal Media, he is my co-host of On the Tape podcast that drops every Friday morning in your favorite podcast story. His name is Guy Adami. Guy, how are you, buddy? [00:00:57][21.1]

Guy Adami: [00:00:57] I’m so you know, when you said you had a special guest, I got all excited. Then you said it’s me. So was bit of a letdown. I’m sure the fans feel the same way, but I’m bringing it here Dan. [00:01:05][8.0]

Dan Nathan: [00:01:06] No, you are. I mean, listen, we have not covered public tech on, okay. Computer in a few weeks here. We’ve had a lot of great guests more focused on the public markets. But you know what’s going on, Guy, over the last call it, you know, week or so is really interesting as it relates to the Nasdaq. You know, the S&P and the Nasdaq have had big rallies off of the lows in mid-October. They both made new 52 week lows. The S&P 500 at its highs just last week was up about 17 and a half percent off those mid October lows. The Nasdaq Guy, though surprisingly okay, is only up 14 and a half percent and has since given back about four and a half percent of that. So there’s been relative underperformance by the Nasdaq. And again, it’s important to recognize the Nasdaq is the index that has nearly doubled the performance to the downside of that. The S&P, as I look right now, it’s down about 29% versus the S&P down about 16 and a half percent. That’s on the year. What’s going on here? [00:02:03][57.2]

Guy Adami: [00:02:03] I love that you use the word surprisingly because that’s exactly right. And obviously, if you’re surprised by something, there needs to be a reason behind that surprise. And I would submit, given the fact that ten year yields have gone from 4.3% and we’re pretty much approaching now three and a half percent in the ten year. And if you had said to me under those set of circumstances on a market, by the way, to your point, that is rallied in the S&P since October 13th, 14th, that Thursday and Friday, some 17%, what are these high valuation, high growth Nasdaq stocks going to do? And I said they’re going to rally fiercely, much more than the broader market and much more obvious in than they have. And I think it’s fascinating the fact that these names, despite the fact that yields have come down so precipitously, basically can’t get out of their own way. And as we sit here right now, Salesforce.com, which, you know, in a lot of ways is a poster child for high growth, high valuation in the right spot, great management team that stock’s not only making a new 52 week low Dan I think that’s the low that stock has seen since the spring of 2020. And that, I think is telling you something again. Does it mean the market’s going to crash? No, I don’t think that’s either one of our points. But it’s definitely something to take notice of. [00:03:19][75.5]

Dan Nathan: [00:03:19] While we’re going to get into the Salesforce in a little bit. Because you said great management team and I think you meant to do that in the past tense because there’s been a bloodletting of some of those senior executives. But we’ll hit that in a couple of minutes here. You know, one of the things, guys, interesting about the timing of the rally from mid-October, we caught a bit of Q3 earnings. Right. And, you know, we’ve talked about this a lot on the tape and on fast money. I mean, when you think of the five largest stocks in the market, not just the S&P, obviously the Nasdaq, it’s Apple, it’s Microsoft, it’s Amazon, it’s Google, it’s Tesla. Those five stocks make up nearly 25% of the weight of the S&P and nearly 40% of the way to the Nasdaq 100. What do all of those companies have in common as far as their Q three earnings they all guided down for Q4. So is in that time period. So the market continued to rally despite the fact that we had guidance of all five. And when you think about that and we’ve talked about this throughout our careers, these are not usually one quarter events, especially when you have the Fed hiking into a slowing economy. I mean, this could be kind of the tip of the iceberg. And I guess when you think about that outperformance, the S&P 500, we saw a rotation into value right out of higher priced growth. And I think that’s defensive positioning for what might come in 2023, which would be a stagflationary environment with a recession in there. And again, what are you willing to pay even when rates are coming down here? What are you willing to pay for stagnant growth that is on a relative basis, very high on a valuation front. [00:04:55][95.8]

Guy Adami: [00:04:55] A lot to dissect there. So let’s just break it down real quick. And you’re right, it’s not typically just a one quarter event, but we’ve become this market, this society that needs instant gratification. We think somehow these companies, these cycles can end a lot sooner. And I would submit, yes, things don’t take as long as they did five or ten years ago, without question. These used to be 18 to 24 month cycles that you’d have to live through. So maybe that’s not 18 months anymore, but it certainly still should be north of a year. And we’re sort of in the early stages of all of this to your point about these companies guiding lower and they all guided lower. And for Apple to guide lower and then subsequently see the stock go from $138, which it touched right after they were. Audit earnings north of 150 in the subsequent weeks. And now here we are back in the mid one forties. The market I don’t think is fully accounting for that. And to your point about what is the right valuation, I mean, that’s really for market participants to decide. But what I’ll tell you is, you know, a 15 multiple on probably somewhere between $205 and $215 of S&P earnings, potentially lower, quite frankly, in this environment, gets you an S&P that’s significantly lower than we are now. And it’s not that we’re all doom and gloom all the time. And it’s interesting because I heard some commentators today saying I’ve never heard such pessimism and negativity. It’s not negativity. It’s just reading the tea leaves. You know, these same people and everything is euphoric. They never say, I’ve never heard such euphoria or such optimism. They don’t talk that way because when things are going higher, it’s seemingly normal. Well, as the book says Dan, the sun also sets. [00:06:29][93.6]

Dan Nathan: [00:06:29] That’s a fact. Let’s talk about Apple for a second here. Again, because this stock has outperformed many of its mega-cap peers. It’s down a little less than 20% on the year. And just to put that in some context, you know, Amazon is down 47%. Microsoft is down 26%. Google is down 33%. So we have some stocks they are in crash mode and Apple just feels like it’s in correction mode. And when you think about it, as the largest market cap company in the world, it’s only expected to grow earnings and sales for the current fiscal year. We are in fiscal. Q1 Guy only expected to have low single digits earnings and sales growth with margins basically flat. Now, here’s the thing. Here’s the news peg and I want to get your take on this. So over the weekend, we heard that Apple is moving more iPhone production out of China. We know that they’ve had lots of issues with protests at Foxconn factories in China. And I think it’s important to also understand that Tim Cook, while everyone agrees he’s a fantastic CEO. He’s not a product guy. His vision for this company was about logistics and supply chain and really for turning into the company that it has become here. But if you have to dismantle the last 20 years of the work that he has done right in charge with this whole plan about making a global product that has iPhones cities in China, where all of their supply chain is oriented to that. And you want to move that to India, you want to move it to Vietnam, you want to bring some jobs back to the U.S. That is definitely going to put a wrinkle, those 43% gross margins that have been kind of stagnant here. And they take, what, 80, 90% of the gross margin, the entire smartphone industry at a time where we know that sales are plateauing a little bit and their products are becoming a bit more iterative. Guy is 23 times that expected growth. Given the fact that we’re likely to see margin pressure going forward, does that make any sense right now? [00:08:23][113.5]

Guy Adami: [00:08:24] No and you know, again, if you were an attorney, I’d say you’re leading the witness, Your Honor, and I’d be correct. But you happen to be right as well. It doesn’t matter. Everything you’ve outlined is correct. And I’ve said it for a long time, and we play this game. If you didn’t know the name of the company and I just outlined exactly what you just said, low mid-single digits EPS growth, low mid-single digits revenue growth, declining margins. And by the way, the cash position is probably the lowest it’s been in five or six years. You look at all those things and again, a slowing down economy with a company that asked to move supply chains, which it’s not like moving your kid to college. I mean, this takes time. This is not a two week thing. It’s a huge decision. And oh, by the way, it’s probably going to infuriate the Chinese. So you wonder what happens in that sort of retaliatory efforts by them. All of these things are their headwinds. It’s not that I’m a hater of Apple. I don’t really care one way or another, but the stock is too expensive. And I still think and we’ve said this for a while on market call, we’ve said it on the tape, we talk about it on fast money. I’m sure you talk about it on okay computer. It’s just too expensive. And you need Apple to sort of give up the ghost in order for this market to find a bottom. And it has not happened yet. [00:09:37][73.4]

Dan Nathan: [00:09:38] Yeah, no, that’s a great point. I mean, you consider where the stock was trading a few months ago and where it is now, it’s still well off of those lows. And you bring up a really good point. You know, when you think about Apple’s market share in China of smartphones, they’re like three or four. It kind of goes back and forth. There’s a bunch of domestic Android based OEMs that do very well there. And if you think about moving a bunch of those jobs and reorienting their supply chains outside of China, you have to think that has something to do with demand locally. And then also when you think about what is the potential for ratcheting up of retaliatory actions, I mean, Chinese citizens have the potential to get really nationalistic about the choices that they make. So to me, this could be really I mean, just the start of this. And it takes you back Guy to the beginning of 2019. And we referenced this. It was like the second or third trading day of the year where Apple preannounced after the stock was in a free fall in Q4 of 2018. And what was going on in Q4 2018, the Fed was raising interest. We had global growth concerns and Apple finally, it was their first negative preannouncement in almost ten years. Now, the stock had already sold off 30%, a gap lower, and they were blaming China. And that was the low. That was it. Go back and look at the chart at some point if you want to bookend this right, you can say that maybe in January of 2023 that maybe this kind of come to Jesus, that they may have to have about this Chinese demand and manufacturing situation. Maybe that’s the thing that causes it to kind of underperform going forward, you know, at least as far as the tech space is concerned. And then that puts pressure on those margins the moment. And we’ve got Dan Benton on this podcast a couple of times this year. The moment that margins start coming down for Apple is the moment that you want to get out of this stock or at least, you know, the overweight of it. So thoughts on the demand aspect, guy, because we are clearly in an economic cold war with China and that’s not getting better any time soon. [00:11:34][116.3]

Guy Adami: [00:11:34] You know, it’s interesting, margins have been declining. So, I mean, you’ve already seen that start to happen. Let’s put it this way. Given everything that you’ve just stated over the last few minutes and given all my replies, margins are not going to improve. I mean, we can argue whether or not they get worse, but they’re certainly not going to improve number one. In terms of the demand picture, they’re still selling a high end device that in good times when interest rates are low and cash is free, nobody seems to care about when the pendulum swings and the consumer is strapped and there’s a global slowdown, people will start to say, Do I really need that new device? And that short answer is probably not. And again, to your point about retaliation, I mean, there are a number of things that can happen on the back of this. There’s so many narratives that are yet to be written in terms of Apple. And they didn’t just wake up and decide they’re going to move their supply chains out of China. I mean, my sense is they labored hard and long about those decisions, understanding the potential ramifications. So to think that all things are great here at Apple and you just own it and pray that the market goes higher, I think that’s folly right now. And quickly, to your point about what happened in 2018, one bit of that narrative that you didn’t mention is the Fed pivoted in December of that year in 2018 into 2019, and that set a bottom for stocks globally. I’m not convinced that’s going to happen this time, but we’ll see. [00:12:56][81.7]

Dan Nathan: [00:12:56] Yeah, and here’s another one. I mean, this is, I think, a good way to kind of extrapolate what we might see. We know that Apple has been supply constrained because of Zero-Covid in China, but this headline that a Tesla over the weekend is a Bloomberg story guy. He was talking about that Tesla is cutting production in the Shanghai factory by 20% and that would only mean that demand is weakening. And when you think about it, we just talked about Apple’s smartphone market share in China. I think that’s really important to kind of like understand this, that Tesla’s market share in the U.S. is about 50% of the electric vehicle market. In China, this year, they are less than 10%. Okay. So there are massive domestic EV players in China. And if you want to just kind of think about everything that we just said to Apple and apply that to Tesla from a manufacturing but also a demand standpoint, I mean, Tesla could have a huge China problem. I just think that’s really important to understand because there are players on the high end, the mid-range and the low end in China that do not want to see Tesla succeed. And if China has to start picking winners, which we know that they do, you know, this could be a real problem for Tesla going forward.[00:14:05][68.6]

Guy Adami: [00:14:05] $177 stock as we sit here, traded down to 166 at its recent low. That stock had been more than cut in half from its all time high. I mean, think about that in a year, nobody really brings that up. The stock subsequently rallied. I think it actually got close to 200. And here we are. I think there’s a problem here. Again, I’m not a hater. I’m just trying to sort of read the tea leaves. And it’s a similar story. I mean, similar in some components, obviously, to Apple, not entirely, you know, a very high end device vehicle that you need consumers to pay up for. And if, again, if you’re going to sort of have problems in China, if you’re poking that dragon or poking that bear, as it were, there are ramifications on the other side of it. And I think, again, I don’t know Elon Musk, I’ve never met him. I don’t have a particular opinion one way or another, but I think he’s bit off a bit more than he can chew. And if his focus is going to be predominately on Twitter, something’s got to give up, right? Something’s got to suffer from it. It’s probably going to be Tesla. And we’re seeing it right now right before our very eyes in terms of the stock. [00:15:02][57.3]

Dan Nathan: [00:15:03] Yeah, I mean, listen, you know, I just think that also the ultimate hypocrisy of the situation with Elon Musk buying Twitter for $44 billion and saying that he’s doing it. And listen, I know you guys are bored of it. I just think it’s really important to understand that it’s been our view. Guys, myself, Danny Moses, as On The Tape is that Tesla shareholders have underwritten Elon Musk’s gambit with Twitter because he knows that he was overpaying by 2025, maybe even more. Billions. Billions. Okay. And so when you think about him, he’s saying that he’s doing it for humanity because he loves it for the name of free speech yet. On the flip side of it, the thing that he has a mass of interested is a 15% shareholder within Tesla. When you think about how dependent Tesla is as a company on Chinese, a very authoritative regime where his Twitter platform is not allowed, you know what I mean? So so to me, it’s the ultimate hypocrisy. He has to show up and no different than Tim Cook, you know, the President Xi, the communist regime over there at some point, I think in 2023 and you’ve been saying this for years, okay, that these companies should be subject to all the kind of goofy rules around ESG, because the social component of the manufacturing in these places and this kind of disregard, I think, for human rights over there is something that sooner or later just has to be addressed here by U.S. investors and by U.S. consumers. [00:16:25][82.5]

Guy Adami: [00:16:26] People look past it for whatever reason, but I think they’re starting to look a bit more close. Given the news we get out of China seemingly every day giving these videos that we’re seeing. I think it’s coming to the forefront and I think the market is starting to understand that. And again, these things don’t resolve themselves Dan overnight. I’m not suggesting you’re saying that at all. They take time and we again become a society and invest in community that’s used to instant gratification. And it’s just not happening now. And unfortunately, I think some of these situations and get worse before they get better, I just don’t see how they resolve themselves. So what does it mean? I think it means pain for a lot of companies that have a huge exposure to the Chinese. And listen, that’s McDonald’s, by the way, that Starbucks, by the way, we can rattle off the names. But on the top of that list is Apple. And to a certain extent, as you mentioned, Tesla as well. Current Ad. Masterworks Ad. Taboola Ad. [00:19:37][191.1]

Dan Nathan: [00:19:40] All right. Let’s talk about Salesforce really quickly because again the company reported last week. It was disappointing. And we’re starting to see this. We’ve been talking about this for months now. [00:19:47][7.4]

Guy Adami: [00:19:48] Very dissapointing. [00:19:48][0.0]

Dan Nathan: [00:19:48] Yeah, I mean, [00:19:50][1.7]

Guy Adami: [00:19:50] You can’t sugarcoat it. I mean, it was just not particularly good. [00:19:53][2.6]

Dan Nathan: [00:19:53] Yeah. So when you think about just kind of layoffs in general that we’ve seen across the tech landscape, I mean, when you have major companies like Meta and Amazon and some of the tech companies laying off 10,000 at a clip workers, I mean, a lot of these companies use SAS products sold by a company like Salesforce. It has been a roll up. And so I just think interestingly, then the last week or so, we’ve seen some major executives leaves. The co-CEO, former chairman of Twitter, Bret Taylor, has left the company kind of abruptly. Stewart Butterfield agreed to sell it in 2020 to Salesforce for nearly $28 billion. He was the CEO, founder of that company, a great entrepreneur, probably a really good manager, too, has just left the company. Another company they bought. I think we’ll stop there CEO just left. So something’s going on there. I like your point. The stock’s down nearly 50% on the year. Again, they’re seeing slowing enterprise demand for this thing. It almost feels like a purge. And let me be clear. I mean, I like Marc Benioff, I like his politics. I like the way he runs his business and stuff. But this just seems like a really odd circumstance, especially as the stock’s making new 52 week lows. And again, you and I are both in agreement that this might be the start of kind of the unwind of ten years of some of these companies where investors just didn’t give a crap about valuation based on growth. And I look at just, you know, guy fiscal 2024 estimates for Salesforce which will be this next fiscal year and your expected earnings growth of mid-teens and low teens for revenue growth trading about 23 times. I just don’t see that materializing in the environment or the economic environment that you and I both think we’re going to be in. So I think investors right now are saying, okay, there’s some senior executives who are losing confidence. What’s going on and maybe investors haven’t got the memo yet. [00:21:39][106.0]

Guy Adami: [00:21:40] Yeah, I think that’s right. And I’m just looking at it. And to your point, you know, stock that was making an all time high this time, effectively last year north of $300. Here we are more than cut in half. And you start to have to ask yourself, you know, what’s the support like, what levels should be looking at? And you go back and it’s interesting. I mean, everything happened in the spring of 2020 and you go back and look at what the low for Salesforce and we’re going to get we’re going to start to approach those levels which you said all the time these stocks have effectively round tripped the COVID low and we’re getting there now. So the question is, what’s the right valuation? Clearly, what we saw this time last year was incorrect. I think you brought it up a number of times. But, you know, for a company that’s still going to do north of $30 billion in revenues next year, probably closer to 33, with a market cap of what right now Dan about $135 billion or so. I mean, what’s the right price to sales? And you’re probably much more familiar with that than I am. But we’re getting towards levels where I think even value investors can wrap their head around. But to your point about abrupt resignations, I mean, the market’s going to sort of sell first, ask questions later when they see something like that, especially given the fact this company has fallen on hard times but is clearly experiencing the slowdown that a lot of these companies have. And again, they sell products that companies and the first thing that these companies are going to start to look at are products that Salesforce sells. And that’s just the nature of the beast. And as much as people want to think these are not cyclical companies, guess what? They’re cyclical companies. [00:23:12][92.8]

Dan Nathan: [00:23:13] Yeah. Well, again, to your point, I mean, there was like a little bit of fear in the start of 2020. And then I think a lot of investors and businesses alike realized there was a tremendous opportunity for work from home, school from home, everything from home. A lot of these products had a massive pull forward. So you’re seeing the unwind of that. And also at a time where a lot of companies were staffing up and they had a lot of fiscal I guess they had a lot of fiscal funny money to do so. Right. When you think about what went on with PPE and [00:23:40][26.9]

Guy Adami: [00:23:41] You’re going to arm your employee base with products that they make were getting on the flip side of that mountain and the stock has been trading in kind. The stock has been telling you that’s been going on now for a year. [00:23:50][9.6]

Dan Nathan: [00:23:51] Yeah, well, I would also say, you know, the analog to 220 years ago after the dot com implosion is that markets investors and valuations were not kind to roll ups you know we saw it we had Cisco and it was Oracle. There was a bunch of kind of roll ups there. I think that you’d say that Salesforce right now is a probably similar sort of setup to some of those companies 20 years ago. So just as it overshot late last year, it has the potential to kind of overshoot to the downside. Here’s one, though, Guy. I think this is really important, especially when we’re talking about tech and pull forward these headlines out of Europe as it relates to Facebook or Meta, as you like to refer to it as targeting their ad model here. European Union privacy regulations have ruled matter shouldn’t require users to agree to personal ads. And then there’s also a story at Axios, and it’s not going to come as a surprise that digital ad growth is expected to slow further in 2023. That had a massive rally. It sold off first after its. Q3 earnings. 25% one day made new 52 week lows. You basically took out its pandemic lows, rallied 40%, filled in that entire gap, and then it’s down about 5% on those sorts of headlines. But it’s not just Meta guy. It’s, you know, anything that’s kind of ad supported right now. I see snap down six and a half percent as some of these other names are getting hit kind of hard. Your thoughts on this, because we see these sorts of moves. You know, Amazon after its Q2 earnings, remember, it just kept on careening lower. And then once the guidance was out, then it had a massive rally filled in that gap but came back in here. So again, why do we talk about technical levels? Because a lot of investors are looking at them and they kind of work, especially if you can kind of piece it together with sentiment and some fundamental data kind of getting in front of some of these events like earnings or products, announcements that sort of thing. [00:25:31][100.2]

Guy Adami: [00:25:31] Well, to your point. Facebook traded down to $88 similarly a few weeks ago and, you know, less than a month ago. And you had that pretty significant rally. But that rally up to 123 or thereabouts is a blip. If you look at it in terms of the context of the stock over the last year, I mean, it’s literally just a blip to the upside. To your point, the problems at Facebook have not been solved by any stretch. Yeah, the stock has bounced and it’s seemingly Mark Zuckerberg got the memo about trying to be more fiscally responsible. But the problems at Facebook are far deeper and it takes a lot longer time to sort them out. So despite the fact that the stock has bounced and I think people giving you the all clear sign, I would suggest that nothing could be further from the truth. And in terms of Amazon, it’s pretty much the same thing. I mean, Amazon went down, I think 25% in the day, if I’m not mistaken, might be a tad less than that. But that’s pretty remarkable given where the stock had been and give it how much it sold off into that. And it did bounce. And here we are back down to, I think, 88 bucks or so last I looked. None of this augurs particularly well, I guess, for the broader market. I mean, we look at tech specifically here. I understand that. But tech was such a huge component of the broader market for so long. And to think that it’s not going to have an impact now, again, I think it’s just foolish. [00:26:47][75.5]

Dan Nathan: [00:26:48] Alright. Last thing before we get out of here, I’d love to get your take on I mean, there’s been so much going on in crypto and it feels like a bit of a sideshow. But but I also feel like Guy and I think we’ve talked about this a lot on our podcast over the last couple of years. I mean, we always like put crypto in this bucket of that where you wanted to put all this SPAC crap in this kind of unprofitable tech stuff trading at 30, 40 times. So that’s kind of how we have been viewing this as if you want to call it an asset class that’s kind of adjacent to equities, if you will. And I think at its highs last year was maybe $3 trillion. And at the time we were kind of remarking that, well, that was Apple’s market cap. So at the end of the day, it wasn’t something that we ever thought was likely to be too systemic. I think it’s helped the negative sentiment within some of those areas within the tech equity landscape. But when you think about this now, you know, there’s been some very, very prominent people who’ve all long, you know, been calling it B.S. here, a couple of those guys in Omaha and then Jamie Dimon. Let’s talk about this. There’s an article in Bloomberg this morning here. A Jamie Dimon likened crypto tokens to pet rocks. Now, I think I’ve heard him say that frequently here. Is this how do you need these guys to do like some victory laps here for crypto to try to buy them? I know that you have said you think that crypto specifically bitcoin probably finds a bottom at some point and it could be from much lower levels when the Fed does in fact pivot going from a very tight monetary policy to something that resembles what had been in place over the prior few years to its highs, where investors were just kind of pushing themselves out the risk curve and bitcoin seem as good as anything to put your money in, look for kind of the crazy sort of returns the upside. [00:28:29][101.0]

Guy Adami: [00:28:30] So let’s dissect that for a second to two old dudes in Nebraska, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. They’ve been steadfast the entire time. You know, when bitcoin was 5000, they were saying pretty much what they’re saying now. It was 60,000. They never really wavered. Price didn’t get them to change their opinion. And now they’re proven to be, I guess, to a certain extent correct. In terms of Jamie Diamond, no, he was pretty negative about crypto originally. He seemingly got the memo some six months or so later when JPMorgan, I don’t want to use the word, embraced it, but acknowledged it in a more meaningful way for the bank. And now he’s seemingly doing a 180 again. So he seems to be blowing hot and cold with price. I guess that’s just sort of my quick take on it doesn’t mean that he’s wrong, but that’s sort of my take in terms of crypto, the asset class, what I find fascinating is, you know, the the last leg lower in Bitcoin obviously happened along with this FTX thing and I guess it makes sense to a certain extent. But you know, as you probably know a lot better than I mean, FTX is effectively an exchange, right? So why would a blow up of an exchange be an indictment of what the exchange trades? It’s similar that if the CME were to have a problem, it does not an indictment on crude oil or any of the products that they trade. But that’s seemingly what the market. It is saying. But to your point, Bitcoin has been 17,000 ish for months. And one of the things I say about asset securities, commodity stocks, the market doesn’t give you a long time to sell the top, nor does it give you a long time to buy the bottom. And 17,000 has been a bottom for quite some time. So almost by definition it means there’s another leg lower here. And again, I find it really interesting that with all the noise around the Fed possibly pivoting or pausing, Bitcoin is not being able to get off the mat. And I think that’s problematic if you’re bullish here in BTC. [00:30:16][106.3]

Dan Nathan: [00:30:17] Yeah. And just to give up, Jamie, I mean, again, you know, we all reserve the right to change our minds on on. No, absolutely. No, no, no. I’m just saying that. And, you know, he’s been really consistent on a couple of things over the last few years. He’s been consistent on the lack of regulation on some of these like buy now, pay later or what they deemed to be fintech, you know, sort of innovations that obviously he’s talking his book because when carvana and upstart and Affirm, these things had massive market caps. Right. And they don’t have any of the sort of regulation that his bank does, which are very big and complicated financial institution. And look at those three stocks. They’re all down, guy. More than 90% from their all time highs. Carvana is probably going to go bankrupt. Those other ones, who knows? You know what I mean? Let’s see how long if we have a consumer led recession, if those things can stay in play. And then if you think about crypto and really what it was meant to do and listen, you and I are in agreement, there’s kind of some very interesting things being developed, I’d say on different blockchains, I would say specifically probably Ethereum in smart contract. I don’t really see the use case for Bitcoin. I never really have. We’ve been very consistent for two years on our podcast about that. Jamie, I think has had the right direction of these things and at some point man out of the ashes something will rise from all of these models and there’ll be something 20 years from now the same way as pessimistic as people were in oh one and O2 about anything Internet or e-commerce related. There were some amazing innovations that were before their time, right? And so again, the valuations didn’t make sense, the sentiment in and around it, the competition. And so there were just kind of too early. So again, I just, you know, I had a conversation with a good friend of ours who’s been a huge crypto skeptic the whole time because of what he does and where he sits. He has not been public about it. But I’ve heard about it from this individual for two years consistently. And we were at a dinner the other night with a couple of journalists. It was really interesting conversation and I said to them, Listen, you were so good at the top. You were so good riding it down. I would say be a little bit more open minded as we appear to be approaching a bottom. And that bottom could be a year or two. You know, I mean, if the analog is the post dot com crash, but it makes no sense to press it to zero. Does that make sense to you Guy? [00:32:35][137.6]

Guy Adami: [00:32:35] No, absolutely not. At a certain point, you wave the victory lap and you know, if it’s going to go lower, it’s going to do it on its own. But you have to be smart enough to understand that you’ve got your thesis right and you’re probably not going to buy the bottom. And you talk about crawling from ashes. Of course, I think of the great Dave Edmunds song Crawling from the Wreckage. By the way, Dave Edmunds made one of the great super bands with a guy named Nick Lowe. It was called RockPile for your listeners. [00:33:00][24.4]

Dan Nathan: [00:33:00] All right. Real quickly, because you were not with me in doing some of our recording, which was yesterday, it was Monday, it was December 5th. You were down in D.C. for the weekend and you were at the Kennedy Honors and U2, which is a band that I absolutely love. I fell in love with The Unforgettable Fire. And then when the Joshua Tree came out in 87, I was a 15 year old lad. It was one of the first rock concerts I saw in the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. September was my freshman year in high school, and it just changed me and the music in which I listen to. And actually it started my obsession with live music. So so yesterday Bono, was it Bono or the entire U2? They were inducted or to the Kennedy Honors and my other Love when it comes to music, Eddie Vedder, Pearl Jam. He did the induction. [00:33:49][49.0]

Guy Adami: [00:33:50] So I was there. It was amazing and quite an experience. George Clooney was honored. Gladys Knight Telethon. I think it director Amy Grant, a Christian singer who’s edgy as hell and obviously U2, the entire band. I think they’re the fourth band that’s been inducted in the history. I think it’s 45 years now of the Kennedy Center or something like that. Eddie Vedder was the performer. I will tell you, Sean Penn was the person that did the induction. And Sean Penn got emotional when he talked about U2, the influence they’ve had and their social awareness and how relevant they’ve been for now over four decades. So it was really cool. And Eddie Vedder, I tell you what, you say it all the time and I mess with you. But he’s one of the great front people in the history of rock and roll. I mean, he is really energetic. He’s great. And it was a fantastic it was long, but it was a fantastic evening. [00:34:40][49.6]

Dan Nathan: [00:34:40] Well, I’m jelly. And I really appreciate you joining us for Okay, Computer, this is kind of a fun little rundown. We kind of wanted to hit some of the biggest topics, names, themes going on in tech. And as far as I’m concerned, as it relates to the Nasdaq, if you’re trying to see where it bottoms or figure out how it bottoms, you know, I still haven’t found what I’m looking for, as it were. All right. So you see what I did there. Thanks a lot for joining me on. Okay, Computer Guy Adami, if you want to see more of them, you can find them on CNBC, fast money or every Friday drops in the podcast store, probably in this feed. Anyway, on the tape with myself and Danny Moses and Guy and I do a market call live streaming Monday through Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern. You can find it at MRKT Call on the Twitter. Guy, thanks for being with us. [00:35:27][46.4]

Guy Adami: [00:35:27] It was fun. I actually sounded like I knew what I was talking about, which is remarkable. I’m scared of okay computer because typically the people that come on are far smarter than I, but in retrospect, most people are. [00:35:38][11.4]

Dan Nathan: [00:35:39] Yeah, fair enough. Well, you did it. You made a believer out of me. All right, I’ll see you soon. Thanks again to our presenting sponsor Current and our supporters Masterworks and Taboola for bringing you this episode of okay Computer. If you like what you heard, make sure you hit, follow and leave us a review. It helps people find our show and we want to hear from you. Email us at contact at risk reversal.cmm. Follow and connect with us on Twitter at Okay Computer Pod. We’ll see you next time. [00:35:39][0.0]

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