Guy Adami and I are back with our weekly video podcast series The Macro Setup brought to you by our presenting sponsor IG US, one of North America’s fastest-growing foreign exchange brokers. See the charts referenced in the video below.
Records in SPX, NDX, Bitcoin, 1yr lows in VIX
But looking under the hood in the stock market there appears to be some trouble brewing… SPACs, Recent SPACs, Pandemic “Winners” like Zoom (ZM) have been cut in half, mini-bubbles like Cannabis and Sports betting are correcting, down 20% from recent highs.
NDX highs powered by a rotation back into Mega-Cap.
Investor fortitude about to be tested as we head into Q1 earnings. Banks First big test this week as nearly 50% of the XLF will report by Friday’s close.
Rate Rise has paused, USD (DXY) at a critical near-term technical spot.
Jay Powell on 60 minutes
“What we’re seeing now is really an economy that seems to be much at an inflection point,” Powell told “60 minutes” during the interview. “And that’s because of widespread vaccination and strong fiscal support, strong monetary policy support. We feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly. The outlook has brightened substantially.”
From @BespokeInvest: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been up from the open to close for a record 12 straight days
SPX 2yr (200day 3583, the last two lows 3850 & 3730)
Nasdaq 100 1yr (200day at 12,114, very near its March lows)
XLF 2yr (200-day near $28)
Ethereum 1yr (200day 964)
10yr U.S. Treasury Yield (5yr chart)
Charts from DailyFX’s Peter Hanks:
Daily gold –
Gold finally showing signs of life? Double bottom on the daily chart with support around the 1680 mark, will need to punch through recent highs with conviction if it’s to continue higher. Resistance stands around 1765. If we get a return to Dollar weakness that could help backstop gold prices.
Weekly DXY –
DXY trading on the underside of a rising trendline from 2010, so despite recent strength there’s still some work that needs to be done before we can rule out a longer-term Dollar rally. Potential support off 2017 swing low and 90 followed by the 2018 lows. Treasury yields remain the key.
Daily GBP/USD –
UK seems to be reopening in earnest, GBP/USD seeking support from the rising trendline and 2 horizontal levels of support. If you’re searching for Dollar weakness, Cable might be an option. Could argue recent declines have seen consolidation from a bull flag.
EUR/USD 4 – Hour Chart –
USD weakness can’t materialize in earnest without EUR strength and EUR/USD isn’t exactly shouting bullishness at the moment. A recent breakout stalled out pretty quickly before it could test resistance around the 1.20 mark. That said, it looks like EUR/USD might be vulnerable to another leg lower which could see DXY trudge higher.