Guy Adami and I are back with the Macro Setup brought to you by our presenting sponsor Nadex, the leading U.S. exchange in binary options, knockouts, and call spreads.
Explosion in U.S. Growth expectations causing stocks and bonds to rise together
Pent Up demand, high savings rate. better vax rollout and infrastructure = New Stock Market Playbook?
There are no haters left in Crypto
Hungry alligator and slippery serpent formations in macro
SPX 6 month
NDX 6 month
The trend has trickled into the options market and led investors to bet on big moves for individual stocks. Bullish options that profit if individual stocks surge have been growing costlier as investors account for the growing likelihood that shares of certain companies could abruptly jump higher as quickly as they could fall, according to Bank of America. Investors typically pay more for bearish options than bullish ones to protect against market crashes.
The shift among individual stocks highlights how falling volatility in the broader market, such as in the S&P 500, belies the big moves in stocks and sectors.
Stocks should be able to maintain their appeal relative to bonds as so-called real yields — which strip out the effects of inflation — are still deeply negative at minus 0.64%, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jim Caron said.
“If real yields just go up a lot, and growth is unchanged, then that’s a big-time tightening,” said Caron, a portfolio manager at the firm. “If you’re going from a 4% expectation of growth for 2021 to 8% expectation of growth for 2021, and real yields go up a little bit, the market can absorb that move.”
1yr Chart of 10yr U.S. Treasury Yield
30yr Chart of 10yr U.S. Treasury Yield
Said by NO SUIT in 2021
Ethereum 1yr chart
Emerging Market Stocks (EEM)