With the S&P 500 index perched right at 1700, how do other global equity indices look?
Before we get to the details, here are my rankings based purely on the charts:
- Hang Seng
I’ll start with the first market to close each day – Japan.
Japan is the best performing major global equity index in 2013 (even in dollar terms). But Japan actually topped out in May, and has now made two lower highs:
It looks more neutral than anything here. A break above 15k or a break below 13k, and I’d anoint a winner.
The other major Asian index, the Hang Seng, has a completely different chart, more similar to other emerging markets:
It peaked in early February, and neither the May high or the Sept high were able to fill that February gap. It’s worth noting that the short-term trend is clearly higher (50 day ma in pink), but the longer-term 200 day moving average has flattened out.
Meanwhile, an even weaker emerging market, Brazil, has also rallied sharply in the past 2 months. However, it has been unable to cleanly break above its downward sloping 200 day ma:
Last week’s highs were quickly rejected, and formed a lower high than the late May levels in the index. The short-term trend here has also turned, with the 50 day ma rising for the first time since January, but the long-term trend is still one of decline.
Europe is the cleanest winner of the major global indices. The Euro Stoxx 50 continues to hold its breakout from last week:
The May and August highs were both in the 2850-2855 area, but September’s rally has taken the index cleanly through that resistance. It’s now crucial support going forward. The past week’s selling has done hardly any technical damage to this chart, in contrast to the other indices.
Finally, the S&P 500 has been in the most consistent uptrend in 2013, holding above its 100 and 200 day moving average almost the entire time:
All 3 moving averages are still rising. However, the break back below the August high around 1710 should be closely watched. Even more important for the long-term outlook is the August low around 1625. A break below there would be the first real lower low in the index all year. For now, it’s still a picture of higher lows and higher highs.